Earlier estimates of quarterly economic growth and labour market

28/03/2025 15:00

Starting Wednesday 30 April 2025, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) will publish its first estimates of quarterly economic growth and labour market indicators 30 days after the end of each quarter. Previously, the first estimate was always published 45 days after quarter-end. ‘This will bring us in line with a large number of other countries in the European Union and ensure that the Netherlands’ first estimates can be compared better with those of other countries. It also responds to the needs of a number of key national and international users who need a complete overview of the past quarter as quickly as possible,’ CBS researchers Stephen Chong and Leon Lengkeek explain.

Quality maintained

The earlier release date for the first estimates will apply to the quarterly economic growth figures and labour market figures published by Statistics Netherlands. The figures will provide exactly the same level of quality as before. The change addresses an important need on the part of users. ‘They will receive exactly the same data as before, but 30 days after the end of each quarter instead of 45 days,’ says Lengkeek. The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) and a number of ministries are among those awaiting these estimates every quarter. CBS also presents the figures – including an explanation – to the media and the public. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) uses the figures for an international audience, while Eurostat, the European statistics office, produces estimates for the EU as a whole.

An important economy

Organisations responsible for international policy need this data as quickly as possible. ‘Many important users, such as the European Central Bank (ECB), want to have a picture of the past quarter at the earliest possible moment,’ explains Chong. ‘For this reason, it’s good that an economy as large as the Dutch economy is now in line with other EU partners. In fact, we have already been doing this, but only by providing data on gross domestic product (GDP) without the underlying details about individual industrial sectors, for example, so that Eurostat could incorporate these into the aggregate overview of statistical data for the EU as a whole. Data on commercial services was missing, for instance. This data has been available since the beginning of 2024, which means we can now publish figures on economic growth for the Netherlands earlier without compromising on quality.’

CBS researchers Stephen Chong and Leon Lengkeek — © Sjoerd van der Hucht

Economic growth

CBS has been publishing quarterly estimates of economic growth since 1986, and in the 1990s quarterly figures on the labour market were also added. Within CBS, Chong focuses on the GDP figures while Lengkeek focuses on the labour market. Chong explains that ‘economic growth’ means the output of all Dutch businesses and government institutions over the past quarter. ‘We correct these figures by subtracting the goods and services that are needed for production, such as the raw materials that are purchased. In fact, GDP is a measure of the value added by businesses and government institutions during a given quarter. The same figures can also be used to look at things from a consumer perspective rather than a business perspective. We also include consumer spending over the past quarter in our estimate.’

Labour market figures

Lengkeek explains the labour market figures: ‘After each quarter, CBS publishes figures on the total number of jobs, hours worked, and employed persons (employees and self-employed). These labour volumes are an underlying factor in GDP. All the tables associated with the economic growth and labour market estimates will now be published after 30 days instead of 45 days.’ The news release on labour market figures (Kwartaalbericht arbeidsmarkt) will also be published 30 days after each quarter-end. This is a joint publication by various labour market teams at CBS, which provides a broad overview of how many vacancies there were, how many jobs were added and lost, how many people were unemployed and how tight the labour market was in the previous quarter.

Years in the planning

Thorough preparations have been made for the move to the earlier publication date. ‘We started working on the labour market figures and running the first tests in 2022,’ says Lengkeek. ‘Then, in 2023, we started working on the economic growth section’ Chong adds. The main challenge was to publish the estimate earlier while maintaining the same standard of quality. ‘This was a team effort: colleagues from various CBS departments worked together to achieve the goal of providing data on the past quarter more quickly,’ says Chong. ‘The data on economic growth includes figures ranging from business turnover to international trade, and from energy consumption to government finance. Our colleagues who process the data in order to make the estimate also had to step up their efforts. They used to have 10 days to do this, but now it’s down to five.’ The shorter lead time was made possible in part by using less detail to calculate the estimate. Chong continues: ‘This doesn’t affect our users, by the way. They will receive the same data as before.’

Quality criteria

‘In order to compile the labour market figures, our colleagues send us the figures on employers’ wage declarations’, Lengkeek explains. ‘Others provide data from the Labour Force Survey. We did not want to compromise on the quality of the figures, so we tested them for both economic growth and the labour market, using pre-set quality criteria. The tests showed that the quality of the figures remained high.’