Economic contraction of 0.1 percent in Q1 2024

Due to the coronavirus pandemic, GDP reached a low in mid-2020. Then a strong recovery occurred and the economy grew continuously until 2023. Since then, GDP has fallen in four out of five quarters. In Q1 2024, GDP was on balance 0.9 percent lower than in Q4 2022.

All figures cited in this report are volume figures. This means that they have been adjusted for price changes.

Increasing consumption and investments

In Q1 2024, household consumption increased by 0.7 percent compared with Q4. Adjusted for price changes, consumers spent mainly more on clothing, footwear and holidays with air travel. Public consumption grew by 0.6 percent and investments in fixed assets increased by 0.4 percent. This was mainly due to higher investments in transport equipment and machinery. However, construction investments fell.

Exports of goods fell, while exports of services rose. On balance, exports of goods and services fell by 0.1 percent. Imports of goods and services remained at the same level. As a result, the trade balance made a negative contribution to GDP development. The contribution of changes in inventories was also negative.

Manufacturing shrunk

In Q1 2024, value added (the difference between the production and consumption of energy, materials and services) of manufacturing fell by 3.8 percent. This can mainly be attributed to the machinery and transport equipment industry. Although mining and quarrying recorded the largest decline, manufacturing contributed the most of all sectors to the decline in GDP in the first quarter. The added value of construction fell by 1.8 percent.

Economic growth main trading partners

The contraction of the Dutch economy by 0.1 percent stands out negatively compared to the economic development of the main trading partners. The economy of the European Union grew by 0.3 percent in Q1 2024 compared with the previous quarter. In Belgium, GDP also rose by 0.3 percent, while in Germany and France the economy grew by 0.2 percent. In the world's largest economy, the US, GDP increased by 0.4 percent in the first quarter relative to the fourth quarter. United Kingdom's GDP rose by 0.6 percent.

Dutch economy 0.7 percent smaller than in Q1 2023

In Q1 2024, the Dutch economy was 0.7 percent smaller year on year. The decline in the trade balance and investments contributed the most to the contraction. Public consumption made the most positive contribution. The manufacturing and construction sectors made the highest negative contribution to economic development relative to one year previously.

First estimate

The first estimate is published 45 days after the end of a quarter and is based on the information available at that moment. It provides an initial picture of the state of the Dutch economy. After the first estimate, new data is collected, which is used to make new calculations. The second estimate of economic growth will be released on Monday 24 June.

On average, over the five-year period of 2019-2023, the difference between the final estimate and the first estimate was 0.1 percentage points in absolute terms, with the two extremes ranging between -0.3 and 0.7 percentage point, both of which occurred in 2021.

With each new estimate, CBS also determines the new seasonally adjusted figures for previously published quarters. The growth figures for Q1, Q3 and Q4 2023 were adjusted by 0.1, -0.1 and -0.1 percentage point respectively.

Revision of macroeconomic figures

The revised macroeconomic figures of the Dutch economy for the 2021 reporting year will be published on 23 May 2024. The purpose of the revision is to incorporate the latest insights from the various (new) statistics and information sources used for the national accounts. This revision also introduces a number of methodical changes.

The second estimate of economic growth for Q1 2024 will be published on 24 June. This will be the first quarterly estimate after the revision. The revised time series from 1995 to the first quarter of 2024 will also be published.