Manufacturers less negative in November

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According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), Dutch manufacturers were less negative in November than one month previously. Producer confidence went up from -1.8 in October to -0.5 in November. Manufacturers were less negative about the expected output and current stocks of finished products.

In November, producer confidence was below the long-term average of 1.0. It reached an all-time high (12.7) in November 2021 and an all-time low (-28.7) in April 2020.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
yearmonthbalance (average of the component questions)
December2.9
2020January2.5
2020February3.7
2020March0.2
2020April-28.7
2020May-25.1
2020June-15.1
2020July-8.7
2020August-5.4
2020September-4.8
2020October-5.6
2020November-3.8
2020December-0.4
2021January0.6
2021February0.1
2021March3.4
2021April6.5
2021May8.8
2021June11.5
2021July12.3
2021August9.6
2021September11.1
2021October12.3
2021November12.7
2021December10.2
2022January9
2022February8.5
2022March8.7
2022April10.8
2022May9.9
2022June8.1
2022July8.4
2022August4.6
2022September2.6
2022October2.5
2022November3
2022December3.3
2023January3.6
2023February3.7
2023March4
2023April 3
2023May2.1
2023June1
2023July0.1
2023August-2.2
2023September-2.2
2023Oktober-1.8
2023November-0.5

Opinions on expected output and current stock improved

Manufacturers were less negative about expected output in the next three months and about current stocks of finished products. Their opinions about the order positions were unchanged.

Two component indicators were negative. Manufacturers anticipating output to decrease over the next three months outnumber those expecting an increase. More manufacturers define their current stock of finished products as large rather than small.

There was one component that was positive. The majority of manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year.

Producer confidence: component indicators (seasonally adjusted)
 November 2023 (balance % positive answers and % negative answers)October 2023 (balance % positive answers and % negative answers)
Producer confidence-0.5-1.8
Opinion on order books0.30.3
Expected output-0.3-2
Stocks of finished products-1.5-3.7

Producer confidence up in almost all industries

In almost all of the major manufacturing industries, producer confidence improved in November. Confidence was highest in the textile, clothing and leather industry and again lowest in the timber and building materials industry.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
 November 2023 (average of the component questions)October 2023 (average of the component questions)
Textiles, clothes, leather10.38.5
Electrotechnical products and machinery7.110.8
Food, beverages, tobacco1.9-2.6
Petroleum and chemicals-0.5-4.5
Metal-4.5-6.6
Transport equipment-5.4-6.5
Paper and printing-6.6-8.2
Timber and building materials-7.2-15

Producers negative about expected workforce

The monthly Business Survey Netherlands also includes questions that are not related to producer confidence. For example, about the workforce in the next three months. For the first time in almost 3 years, producers are negative about this. The number of producers expecting their workforce to increase over the next three months was smaller (12.1 percent) than the number anticipating a decrease (13.1 percent). The balance was -0.9. This indicator is not seasonally adjusted.

Workforce next 3 months
yearmonthbalance (balance % will increase and % will decrease )
December0.4
2020January8.4
2020February5.9
2020March3.9
2020April-21.4
2020May-14.3
2020June-9.2
2020July-7.1
2020August-2.7
2020September-2.6
2020October-1.9
2020November-6.5
2020December-6.8
2021January2
2021February2.4
2021March5.5
2021April11.1
2021May10.7
2021June13.9
2021July17.6
2021August16.3
2021September18
2021October21.4
2021November17.9
2021December19.1
2022January22.1
2022February21.5
2022March19.9
2022April20.4
2022May19.1
2022June17.3
2022July18.8
2022August15.4
2022September13.7
2022October11.4
2022November7.8
2022December10
2023January13.4
2023February12.8
2023March11.5
2023April 12.5
2023May8.9
2023June7.1
2023July7.5
2023August5.7
2023September6.4
2023Oktober3.6
2023November-0.9

Manufacturing output over 10 percent down in September

Approximately three weeks ago, CBS reported that in September 2023, the average daily output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 10.3 percent lower than it was in September 2022. Output also contracted year on year in the preceding months of 2023. Relative to August, output fell by 0.9 percent in September.