Life expectancy forecast for 65-year-olds: 20.89 years in 2029

© Hollandse Hoogte / Robin Utrecht
According to current projections by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the life expectancy of 65-year-olds will stand at 20.89 years in 2029. Policymakers will use this figure to determine the future state pension (AOW) entitlement age. The life expectancy forecast is part of the Population forecast 2023–2070, to be published by CBS on 15 December of this year.
The newly projected life expectancy in 2029 is down from last year’s forecast, which was set at 21.16 years. Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, mortality has been higher than expected prior to it. This increase in mortality has resulted in lower life expectancy and due to a slower than expected recovery, the forecast has been adjusted.

The forecast desribes the most likely development, but it also contains uncertainties. More information can be found in the final paragraph below.


State pension legislation based on CBS forecast

The CBS forecast is used as a basis for determining the future state pension entitlement age as laid down in the General Old Age Pension Act (AOW, Article 7a). As stipulated in the AOW Act, state pension entitlement will begin at 67 in 2024. The state pension age is set at 67 years until and including 2027. In 2028, this is 67 years and 3 months. On the basis of the life expectancy forecast for 65-year-olds in 2029, the Minister of Social Affairs and Employment will determine the state pension entitlement age for 2029.

Lower life expectancy since the beginning of the pandemic

Between 1950 and 2019, the remaining life expectancy for 65-year-olds rose from 14.3 to 20.1 years. Life expectancy does not increase evenly over the years. The trend may accelerate or slow down in certain periods. In the Netherlands, as in other Western European countries, the increase in life expectancy was slower between 2012 and 2018.

Due to the coronavirus pandemic, it decreased to 19.5 years in 2020. It remained unchanged in 2021. In both years, there were approximately 10 percent more deaths than expected. In 2022, there was still excess mortality, but remaining life expectancy increased to 19.7 years. Looking ahead, the projected increase in life expectancy continues, to 20.89 years in 2029. Life expectancy for women is higher than for men. In 2022, the gap at age 65 was 2.2 years.


COVID-19 affects future life expectancy

In 2020, 2021 and 2022, the estimated number of deaths was 10 percent above what was expected in the absence of a pandemic. So far in 2023, the number of deaths has also been higher than expected, by over 6 percent.

Although life expectancy seems to be recovering, 3.5 years after the start of the coronavirus pandemic, life expectancy is still lower than before. In the past, after periods of high mortality such as during the Spanish flu and the Second World War, life expectancy quickly returned to its previous level.

Meanwhile, the emergency situation is over and COVID-19 is now an established and ongoing health issue. There has been a visible recovery and further progress is still possible, but it is slower than expected. Therefore, a full return to the pre-pandemic trend is no longer assumed.

Most likely scenario

For its projections of future life expectancy, CBS uses a model which was developed within the international scientific community. This model is based on the expectation that the stable decline in mortality risk around Western Europe will continue in the long term. In this way, temporary changes in the Dutch trend have a less distorting effect on future projections than if the model were solely based on national developments. However, forecasts remain uncertain. The degree of uncertainty around the forecast is calculated by using so-called forecast intervals. These indicate the degree of accuracy of a forecast.

The life expectancy forecast is part of the annual population forecast conducted by CBS. This forecast describes the most likely future development of the Dutch population. The Population forecast 2023–2070 will be published on 15 December 2023.

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