Producer confidence deteriorates in June

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© Hollandse Hoogte / Bart van Overbeeke Fotografie
As of June 2022, the mood among Dutch manufacturers is less positive. Producer confidence has declined from 9.9 in May to 8.1 in June, as reported today by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). However, producer confidence is still significantly higher than the long-term average of 1.0. Confidence has fallen in almost all manufacturing industries.

Producer confidence reached an all-time high (12.7) in November 2021 and an all-time low (-28.7) in April 2020.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
yearmonthbalance (average of the component questions)
2018July6.3
2018August5.9
2018September5.7
2018October5.9
2018November7.2
2018December7.5
2019January5.8
2019February6.3
2019March6.1
2019April6.7
2019May4.7
2019Juni3.3
2019Juli 3.9
2019August3.9
2019September3.3
2019October3.6
2019November2.8
2019December2.9
2020January2.5
2020February3.7
2020March0.2
2020April-28.7
2020May-25.1
2020June-15.1
2020July-8.7
2020August-5.4
2020September-4.8
2020October-5.6
2020November-3.8
2020December-0.4
2021January0.6
2021February0.1
2021March3.4
2021April6.5
2021May8.8
2021June11.5
2021July12.3
2021August9.6
2021September11.1
2021October12.3
2021November12.7
2021December10.2
2022January9
2022February8.5
2022March8.7
2022April10.8
2022May9.9
2022June8.1

Manufacturers less positive about future output, order position and stocks

Manufacturers’ opinions on future output and order positions are less positive. Their opinions about their stocks of finished products were more negative than in the previous month as well.

Two component indicators of producer confidence are positive: manufacturers who anticipate output to increase over the next three months outnumber those expecting a decrease. In addition, the majority consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year.

On the other hand, the opinion on stocks of finished products was negative by a fraction. Slightly more manufacturers define their current stock of finished products as too large rather than too small.

Confidence highest in electrotechnical and machinery industry

As of June, confidence has fallen in almost all manufacturing industries, in the petroleum industry the most. Confidence is highest in the electrotechnical and machinery industry.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
 June 2022 (average of the component questions)May 2022 (average of the component questions)
Electrotechnical products and machinery21.723.5
Timber and building materials11.414.5
Transport equipment10.811.3
Paper and printing10.211.7
Textiles, clothes, leather8.18.7
Metal5.25.6
Food, beverages, tobacco3.56.2
Petroleum1.65

Manufacturing output almost 14 percent up in April

In April 2022, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 13.7 percent on April 2021. Output grew by 7.6 percent in the previous month.

Producer confidence in Germany also deteriorating

Germany is an important market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. In June, German producer confidence according to the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute deteriorated. Companies assessed the current situation as slightly less good. Moreover, they are considerably more pessimistic about the second half of the year. In April, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry contracted by almost 3 percent year on year, as reported by Destatis.

Sources

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