Mortality slightly down in week 2, remains high

As of week 39 of 2020, weekly mortality has been higher than expected. During the current second epidemic wave, slightly over 60 thousand people have died up to the second week of 2021 inclusive. This is nearly 9 thousand more deaths than would normally be expected in this period.

Less mortality among long-term care users and the rest of the population

In week 2 of 2021, the estimated number of deaths among people receiving care under the Long-term Care Act (Wlz) declined, but it remains relatively high. Mortality among the rest of the population was down as well. There were approximately 1,600 deaths among long-term care users, including residents of nursing homes and institutions for the disabled. Just under 2,300 deaths were recorded among the rest of the population.

During the second epidemic wave, so far nearly 24 thousand people have died among the population receiving long-term care (week 39 of 2020 to week 2 of 2021 inclusive). This is 4.6 thousand more than the expected number for this period, an increase of 24 percent. Among the rest of the population, so far over 36 thousand deaths have been recorded during the second wave, exceeding the expected number for this period by 13 percent (4.3 thousand).

Mortality down among men and women

In week 2 of 2021, mortality declined among both men and women compared to the previous week. It is estimated that there were slightly more deaths among men than among women in that week.

During the first few weeks of the first epidemic wave and during several weeks of the second wave, mortality was likewise higher among men, even though the elderly population includes more women than men.

Decline among the elderly

In week 2, mortality among the elderly population declined compared to the previous week. There were 1,100 deaths among people aged 65 to 79 years and more than 2,300 deaths among the over-80s. Mortality among people under the age 65 remained more or less the same; there were no excess deaths in this age category.

During the second wave, so far over 34 thousand people aged 80 and over have died (week 39 of 2020 to week 2 of 2021 inclusive), which is 20 percent (5.6 thousand deaths) more than expected for this period. Excess mortality was also recorded in the group 65 to 79 years, namely 19 percent (over 2.9 thousand excess deaths). In the group under age 65, so far 5 percent (approximately 340) more people have passed away during the second wave.

COVID-19 mortality known up to June inclusive

The figures on (excess) mortality are based on daily reports on the number of deaths received by CBS. These reports do not contain any information about the cause of death. CBS receives such information at a later stage via a death cause certificate. The cause of death is known for all deceased up to and including June 2020. According to these figures, just over 10,000 people died from COVID-19 between March and June 2020, as published by CBS on 1 October. Excess mortality over this period is therefore entirely attributable to mortality from the novel coronavirus.

Data sources for RIVM

The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) receives data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from municipal health services (GGD) around the country on a daily basis. The actual COVID-19-related death count in the Netherlands is likely to turn out higher because of the following reasons: possibly not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested, there is no reporting obligation for COVID-19 deaths and registration sometimes takes a little longer.

Up to and including June 2020, RIVM registered 6,182 COVID-19 deaths. In weeks 39 of 2020 to week 2 of 2021, RIVM registered 6,762 COVID-19 deaths. This includes 446 deaths reported in week 2 (as at 19 January 2021). There were fewer than 200 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the intervening period.

Estimate for week 2

The figures for week 2 are estimates, based on 83 percent of the overall number of death records to be received by CBS. CBS will publish provisional weekly mortality figures for week 2 on Friday 29 January. The figures will be more complete by then.