Higher mortality in week 48
As of week 39, weekly mortality has been higher than expected. In the first ten weeks of the second wave (weeks 39 through 48), there were 4.3 thousand more deaths than would normally be expected during this period. Excess mortality during the first wave (weeks 11 through 19) is estimated at nearly 9 thousand. With the exception of elevated mortality in weeks 33 and 34 during the heat wave, the average weekly death count fell slightly below the expected levels as of week 19 had there not been a coronavirus epidemic.
Deaths | Estimated mortality | Estimated mortality (95% interval) | |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 3103 | 3277 | 2908 – 3645 |
2 | 3365 | 3311 | 2930 – 3692 |
3 | 3157 | 3344 | 2945 – 3742 |
4 | 3046 | 3392 | 3008 – 3776 |
5 | 3162 | 3407 | 3027 – 3788 |
6 | 3194 | 3401 | 2979 – 3823 |
7 | 3199 | 3408 | 2916 – 3901 |
8 | 2959 | 3387 | 2851 – 3922 |
9 | 3098 | 3352 | 2805 – 3898 |
10 | 3105 | 3315 | 2785 – 3845 |
11 | 3219 | 3253 | 2756 – 3751 |
12 | 3615 | 3174 | 2711 – 3637 |
13 | 4459 | 3104 | 2703 – 3505 |
14 | 5084 | 3024 | 2712 – 3337 |
15 | 4980 | 2957 | 2719 – 3195 |
16 | 4304 | 2915 | 2711 – 3120 |
17 | 3907 | 2869 | 2677 – 3060 |
18 | 3379 | 2841 | 2650 – 3032 |
19 | 2986 | 2821 | 2633 – 3009 |
20 | 2775 | 2794 | 2626 – 2962 |
21 | 2771 | 2770 | 2620 – 2920 |
22 | 2728 | 2753 | 2608 – 2898 |
23 | 2682 | 2735 | 2591 – 2880 |
24 | 2691 | 2737 | 2600 – 2875 |
25 | 2694 | 2725 | 2594 – 2855 |
26 | 2660 | 2717 | 2577 – 2857 |
27 | 2639 | 2723 | 2544 – 2902 |
28 | 2619 | 2719 | 2515 – 2923 |
29 | 2527 | 2720 | 2507 – 2934 |
30 | 2671 | 2707 | 2515 – 2900 |
31 | 2665 | 2687 | 2492 – 2882 |
32 | 2639 | 2682 | 2483 – 2881 |
33 | 3209 | 2669 | 2481 – 2857 |
34 | 2851 | 2663 | 2510 – 2815 |
35 | 2732 | 2667 | 2526 – 2807 |
36 | 2689 | 2676 | 2549 – 2804 |
37 | 2738 | 2698 | 2564 – 2832 |
38 | 2718 | 2729 | 2585 – 2873 |
39 | 2890 | 2752 | 2618 – 2886 |
40 | 2996 | 2786 | 2628 – 2943 |
41 | 3017 | 2807 | 2655 – 2960 |
42 | 3210 | 2839 | 2677 – 3001 |
43 | 3442 | 2862 | 2661 – 3063 |
44 | 3672 | 2889 | 2683 – 3095 |
45 | 3583 | 2902 | 2692 – 3111 |
46 | 3548 | 2932 | 2710 – 3155 |
47 | 3293 | 2972 | 2742 – 3202 |
48 | 3447 | 3012 | 2762 – 3263 |
49 | 3037 | 2742 – 3332 | |
50 | 3100 | 2800 – 3399 | |
51 | 3166 | 2830 – 3501 | |
52 | 3222 | 2871 – 3573 | |
* Provisional figures. Week 48 is an estimate. |
Mortality up among both long-term care users and the rest of the population
Based on the estimate for week 48, the number of deaths has increased among people receiving care under the Long-term Care Act (Wlz), such as residents of nursing homes. Just over 1,300 long-term care users died in week 48, which means that mortality was slightly higher than expected for this time of year. There were over 2,100 deaths among the rest of the population; the increase in mortality appears to be relatively higher in this group than among long-term care users.
In the first ten weeks of the second wave (weeks 39 through 48), there were around 2.1 thousand more deaths among long-term care users than would normally be expected during this period. During the first wave (weeks 11 through 19), this number stood at an estimated 5.2 thousand.
Long-term care (Wlz) users, deaths | Long-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortality | Long-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortality (95% interval) | Other population, deaths | Other population, estimated mortality | Other population, estimated mortality (95% interval) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1210 | 1252 | 1052 – 1451 | 1893 | 2025 | 1780 – 2270 |
2 | 1265 | 1272 | 1076 – 1468 | 2100 | 2039 | 1793 – 2285 |
3 | 1135 | 1282 | 1086 – 1478 | 2022 | 2062 | 1805 – 2319 |
4 | 1125 | 1301 | 1113 – 1489 | 1921 | 2091 | 1842 – 2339 |
5 | 1098 | 1310 | 1118 – 1503 | 2064 | 2097 | 1853 – 2341 |
6 | 1142 | 1309 | 1099 – 1519 | 2052 | 2092 | 1826 – 2358 |
7 | 1155 | 1309 | 1069 – 1549 | 2044 | 2099 | 1796 – 2403 |
8 | 1129 | 1296 | 1044 – 1549 | 1830 | 2091 | 1762 – 2419 |
9 | 1195 | 1276 | 1005 – 1546 | 1903 | 2076 | 1756 – 2396 |
10 | 1164 | 1260 | 989 – 1531 | 1941 | 2056 | 1752 – 2359 |
11 | 1200 | 1229 | 950 – 1507 | 2019 | 2025 | 1741 – 2308 |
12 | 1335 | 1191 | 928 – 1454 | 2280 | 1983 | 1714 – 2252 |
13 | 1656 | 1156 | 912 – 1400 | 2803 | 1948 | 1715 – 2180 |
14 | 2212 | 1120 | 915 – 1326 | 2872 | 1904 | 1709 – 2100 |
15 | 2409 | 1091 | 910 – 1273 | 2571 | 1866 | 1709 – 2022 |
16 | 2066 | 1075 | 912 – 1238 | 2238 | 1840 | 1691 – 1990 |
17 | 1716 | 1055 | 898 – 1211 | 2191 | 1814 | 1663 – 1965 |
18 | 1429 | 1048 | 900 – 1195 | 1950 | 1793 | 1643 – 1944 |
19 | 1186 | 1038 | 897 – 1179 | 1800 | 1783 | 1631 – 1935 |
20 | 1031 | 1029 | 902 – 1155 | 1744 | 1765 | 1615 – 1915 |
21 | 1069 | 1015 | 892 – 1138 | 1702 | 1755 | 1615 – 1895 |
22 | 1004 | 1007 | 887 – 1127 | 1724 | 1746 | 1602 – 1890 |
23 | 909 | 995 | 886 – 1104 | 1773 | 1740 | 1585 – 1895 |
24 | 958 | 997 | 888 – 1106 | 1733 | 1740 | 1592 – 1889 |
25 | 912 | 989 | 879 – 1099 | 1782 | 1736 | 1585 – 1886 |
26 | 940 | 985 | 864 – 1107 | 1720 | 1732 | 1585 – 1879 |
27 | 931 | 992 | 850 – 1134 | 1708 | 1731 | 1567 – 1896 |
28 | 911 | 998 | 849 – 1147 | 1708 | 1721 | 1552 – 1890 |
29 | 900 | 1003 | 855 – 1152 | 1627 | 1717 | 1555 – 1879 |
30 | 957 | 1004 | 854 – 1154 | 1714 | 1704 | 1553 – 1855 |
31 | 946 | 997 | 851 – 1143 | 1719 | 1690 | 1540 – 1840 |
32 | 904 | 993 | 846 – 1140 | 1735 | 1690 | 1546 – 1834 |
33 | 1311 | 987 | 840 – 1134 | 1898 | 1682 | 1531 – 1832 |
34 | 1113 | 980 | 849 – 1111 | 1738 | 1683 | 1553 – 1813 |
35 | 995 | 974 | 860 – 1087 | 1737 | 1693 | 1550 – 1835 |
36 | 942 | 973 | 860 – 1087 | 1747 | 1703 | 1562 – 1844 |
37 | 942 | 977 | 865 – 1089 | 1796 | 1721 | 1579 – 1862 |
38 | 980 | 989 | 876 – 1102 | 1738 | 1740 | 1594 – 1886 |
39 | 1054 | 1001 | 892 – 1110 | 1836 | 1751 | 1606 – 1896 |
40 | 1076 | 1015 | 897 – 1133 | 1920 | 1771 | 1632 – 1909 |
41 | 1090 | 1028 | 908 – 1147 | 1927 | 1780 | 1638 – 1922 |
42 | 1216 | 1042 | 910 – 1175 | 1994 | 1797 | 1663 – 1930 |
43 | 1316 | 1054 | 912 – 1195 | 2126 | 1808 | 1650 – 1966 |
44 | 1520 | 1068 | 920 – 1215 | 2152 | 1821 | 1662 – 1981 |
45 | 1390 | 1074 | 925 – 1224 | 2193 | 1827 | 1664 – 1991 |
46 | 1420 | 1086 | 936 – 1235 | 2128 | 1846 | 1678 – 2014 |
47 | 1278 | 1102 | 953 – 1252 | 2015 | 1870 | 1684 – 2056 |
48 | 1313 | 1121 | 964 – 1278 | 2134 | 1892 | 1702 – 2081 |
49 | 1135 | 970 – 1300 | 1901 | 1683 – 2120 | ||
50 | 1163 | 996 – 1329 | 1937 | 1721 – 2153 | ||
51 | 1193 | 1019 – 1368 | 1972 | 1739 – 2205 | ||
52 | 1223 | 1035 – 1410 | 1999 | 1763 – 2236 | ||
* Provisional figures. Week 48 is an estimate. |
Again more deaths among men
In week 48, mortality increased among both men and women compared to the previous week, but the increase was again higher among men. Also in earlier weeks of the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic, more men than women passed away, although there are more older women than older men. The first wave saw more male deaths as well; in this period (weeks 11 up to and including 19), excess mortality stood at 38 percent among men, versus 29 percent among women.
Week | Men | Women |
---|---|---|
1 | 1503 | 1600 |
2 | 1677 | 1688 |
3 | 1530 | 1627 |
4 | 1470 | 1576 |
5 | 1576 | 1586 |
6 | 1592 | 1602 |
7 | 1507 | 1692 |
8 | 1485 | 1474 |
9 | 1504 | 1594 |
10 | 1517 | 1588 |
11 | 1597 | 1622 |
12 | 1873 | 1742 |
13 | 2366 | 2093 |
14 | 2666 | 2418 |
15 | 2528 | 2452 |
16 | 2123 | 2181 |
17 | 1932 | 1975 |
18 | 1674 | 1705 |
19 | 1462 | 1524 |
20 | 1418 | 1357 |
21 | 1389 | 1382 |
22 | 1327 | 1401 |
23 | 1373 | 1309 |
24 | 1314 | 1377 |
25 | 1343 | 1351 |
26 | 1317 | 1343 |
27 | 1281 | 1358 |
28 | 1217 | 1402 |
29 | 1234 | 1293 |
30 | 1319 | 1352 |
31 | 1298 | 1367 |
32 | 1320 | 1319 |
33 | 1541 | 1668 |
34 | 1418 | 1433 |
35 | 1346 | 1386 |
36 | 1329 | 1360 |
37 | 1347 | 1391 |
38 | 1373 | 1345 |
39 | 1437 | 1453 |
40 | 1500 | 1496 |
41 | 1569 | 1448 |
42 | 1607 | 1603 |
43 | 1806 | 1636 |
44 | 1854 | 1818 |
45 | 1853 | 1730 |
46 | 1788 | 1760 |
47 | 1679 | 1614 |
48 | 1755 | 1692 |
* Provisional figures. Week 48 is an estimate. |
Increased mortality across all age groups
The higher number of deaths in week 48 can be seen in all age groups, but mainly among older people. The estimates for week 48 include slightly over 1,900 people aged 80 years and over, and nearly 1,100 people aged 65 to 79 years. Mortality among people under 65 stood at more than 400.
Population 0 to 65 yrs, deaths | Population 0 to 65 yrs, estimated mortality | Population 0 to 65 yrs, estimated mortality (95% interval) | Population 65 to 80 yrs, deaths | Population 65 to 80 yrs, estimated mortality | Population 65 to 80 yrs, estimated mortality (95% interval) | Population 80 yrs and over, deaths | Population 80 yrs and over, estimated mortality | Population 80 yrs and over, estimated mortality (95% interval) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 385 | 415 | 374 – 456 | 896 | 947 | 852 – 1041 | 1822 | 1918 | 1632 – 2204 |
2 | 432 | 413 | 371 – 456 | 967 | 944 | 851 – 1038 | 1966 | 1957 | 1650 – 2263 |
3 | 418 | 415 | 371 – 460 | 913 | 944 | 851 – 1038 | 1826 | 1988 | 1657 – 2319 |
4 | 352 | 417 | 374 – 459 | 936 | 949 | 856 – 1043 | 1758 | 2030 | 1701 – 2360 |
5 | 449 | 417 | 375 – 460 | 924 | 956 | 857 – 1056 | 1789 | 2039 | 1717 – 2360 |
6 | 401 | 417 | 371 – 463 | 981 | 957 | 843 – 1071 | 1812 | 2032 | 1691 – 2373 |
7 | 409 | 420 | 374 – 466 | 938 | 961 | 832 – 1091 | 1852 | 2032 | 1649 – 2415 |
8 | 340 | 420 | 374 – 467 | 870 | 961 | 815 – 1108 | 1749 | 2009 | 1600 – 2418 |
9 | 404 | 420 | 370 – 470 | 911 | 951 | 805 – 1096 | 1783 | 1984 | 1574 – 2394 |
10 | 393 | 417 | 370 – 464 | 889 | 944 | 804 – 1085 | 1823 | 1957 | 1557 – 2357 |
11 | 410 | 415 | 367 – 463 | 949 | 932 | 803 – 1062 | 1860 | 1909 | 1537 – 2281 |
12 | 450 | 410 | 364 – 456 | 1079 | 917 | 796 – 1039 | 2086 | 1849 | 1503 – 2195 |
13 | 502 | 407 | 366 – 448 | 1402 | 907 | 806 – 1008 | 2555 | 1791 | 1486 – 2097 |
14 | 498 | 401 | 357 – 444 | 1503 | 889 | 806 – 972 | 3083 | 1735 | 1490 – 1981 |
15 | 483 | 394 | 355 – 432 | 1436 | 876 | 809 – 942 | 3061 | 1688 | 1496 – 1880 |
16 | 426 | 389 | 350 – 427 | 1232 | 867 | 799 – 935 | 2646 | 1660 | 1505 – 1815 |
17 | 454 | 383 | 341 – 425 | 1154 | 857 | 787 – 926 | 2299 | 1630 | 1490 – 1769 |
18 | 444 | 381 | 342 – 419 | 999 | 847 | 779 – 916 | 1936 | 1613 | 1472 – 1755 |
19 | 390 | 380 | 339 – 420 | 914 | 845 | 777 – 912 | 1682 | 1597 | 1458 – 1735 |
20 | 374 | 378 | 339 – 418 | 833 | 834 | 768 – 901 | 1568 | 1581 | 1460 – 1703 |
21 | 369 | 377 | 335 – 419 | 805 | 832 | 766 – 898 | 1597 | 1560 | 1459 – 1661 |
22 | 368 | 376 | 330 – 422 | 858 | 830 | 764 – 895 | 1502 | 1547 | 1451 – 1643 |
23 | 385 | 378 | 335 – 421 | 836 | 827 | 767 – 887 | 1461 | 1529 | 1425 – 1634 |
24 | 407 | 383 | 340 – 425 | 835 | 829 | 770 – 888 | 1449 | 1525 | 1431 – 1619 |
25 | 375 | 382 | 341 – 423 | 856 | 827 | 765 – 889 | 1463 | 1514 | 1427 – 1601 |
26 | 382 | 384 | 342 – 426 | 828 | 825 | 763 – 887 | 1450 | 1507 | 1407 – 1606 |
27 | 403 | 385 | 342 – 428 | 809 | 829 | 764 – 894 | 1427 | 1507 | 1375 – 1639 |
28 | 389 | 386 | 347 – 424 | 813 | 830 | 760 – 899 | 1417 | 1501 | 1352 – 1650 |
29 | 372 | 389 | 351 – 426 | 774 | 830 | 762 – 899 | 1381 | 1499 | 1337 – 1661 |
30 | 407 | 387 | 349 – 425 | 821 | 828 | 759 – 896 | 1443 | 1491 | 1343 – 1639 |
31 | 376 | 383 | 347 – 419 | 842 | 824 | 752 – 896 | 1447 | 1478 | 1334 – 1622 |
32 | 419 | 384 | 345 – 423 | 820 | 829 | 755 – 904 | 1400 | 1467 | 1318 – 1615 |
33 | 463 | 382 | 345 – 418 | 928 | 826 | 749 – 904 | 1818 | 1459 | 1325 – 1592 |
34 | 416 | 382 | 342 – 422 | 860 | 829 | 756 – 901 | 1575 | 1450 | 1346 – 1554 |
35 | 352 | 384 | 338 – 429 | 863 | 831 | 761 – 900 | 1517 | 1450 | 1354 – 1546 |
36 | 414 | 385 | 339 – 431 | 828 | 833 | 766 – 900 | 1447 | 1456 | 1373 – 1538 |
37 | 393 | 390 | 343 – 437 | 895 | 839 | 773 – 905 | 1450 | 1466 | 1383 – 1548 |
38 | 393 | 397 | 350 – 445 | 843 | 850 | 777 – 923 | 1482 | 1479 | 1390 – 1568 |
39 | 393 | 396 | 346 – 447 | 879 | 855 | 785 – 924 | 1618 | 1498 | 1416 – 1580 |
40 | 434 | 400 | 348 – 453 | 912 | 865 | 789 – 941 | 1650 | 1518 | 1416 – 1620 |
41 | 376 | 400 | 354 – 447 | 989 | 868 | 785 – 950 | 1652 | 1537 | 1436 – 1638 |
42 | 429 | 405 | 360 – 449 | 981 | 872 | 788 – 956 | 1800 | 1560 | 1446 – 1674 |
43 | 422 | 406 | 362 – 450 | 1077 | 878 | 787 – 969 | 1943 | 1576 | 1438 – 1713 |
44 | 406 | 403 | 360 – 447 | 1160 | 888 | 798 – 979 | 2106 | 1595 | 1443 – 1748 |
45 | 433 | 403 | 362 – 443 | 1107 | 890 | 807 – 973 | 2043 | 1607 | 1441 – 1774 |
46 | 423 | 408 | 369 – 446 | 1049 | 898 | 814 – 982 | 2076 | 1625 | 1449 – 1801 |
47 | 405 | 411 | 376 – 447 | 1069 | 913 | 829 – 996 | 1819 | 1647 | 1468 – 1826 |
48 | 436 | 414 | 377 – 450 | 1089 | 925 | 845 – 1005 | 1922 | 1673 | 1482 – 1863 |
49 | 411 | 373 – 450 | 933 | 843 – 1022 | 1692 | 1481 – 1903 | |||
50 | 413 | 374 – 451 | 938 | 853 – 1023 | 1749 | 1525 – 1973 | |||
51 | 416 | 378 – 454 | 941 | 848 – 1034 | 1809 | 1563 – 2056 | |||
52 | 415 | 375 – 455 | 944 | 849 – 1039 | 1865 | 1598 – 2132 | |||
* Provisional figures. Week 48 is an estimate. |
COVID-19 mortality known until June
The figures on (excess) mortality are based on daily reports on the number of deaths received by CBS. These reports do not contain any information about the cause of death. CBS receives such information at a later stage via a death cause certificate. The cause of death is known for all deceased up to and including June 2020. According to these figures, just over 10,000 people died from COVID-19 between March and June 2020, as published by CBS on 1 October. Excess mortality over this period is therefore entirely attributable to mortality from the novel coronavirus.
Data sources for RIVM
The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) receives data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from municipal health services (GGD) around the country on a daily basis. The actual COVID-19-related death count in the Netherlands is likely to turn out higher because of the following reasons: possibly not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested, there is no reporting obligation for COVID-19 deaths and registration sometimes takes a little longer.
Up to and including June 2020, RIVM registered 6,180 COVID-19 deaths. In weeks 39 through 48, it registered 3,044 COVID-19 deaths, of which 244 in week 48 (as at 1 December 2020). There were fewer than 200 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the intervening period.
Estimate for week 48
The figures for week 48 are estimates, based on 84 percent of the overall number of death records to be received by CBS. CBS will publish provisional weekly mortality figures for week 48 on Friday 11 December. The figures will be more complete by then.
Sources
- StatLine - Deaths registered weekly, by sex and age
Related items
- FAQ - How many deaths are registered per week?
- News release - Less excess mortality during second wave, but still high after 9 weeks
- RIVM - Current information about COVID-19 (novel coronavirus)
- News release - Nearly 9 thousand more deaths in first 9 weeks of COVID-19
- News release - 10 thousand COVID-19 deaths during first wave of the pandemic