Mortality on the rise again

09/10/2020 15:00

More recent figures are available on this topic. View the latest figures here.

The estimated number of deaths in week 40 (28 September to 4 October inclusive) stands at 3,000. This is over 200 more than would normally be expected for this week. Mortality was already slightly above average in week 39 (2,865). The elevated mortality coincides with the emerging second wave of the coronavirus pandemic in the Netherlands. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports this today, based on provisional weekly mortality figures.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
Week	Deaths	Estimated mortality	Estimated mortality (95%-interval)
1	3103	3277	2908 – 3645
2	3364	3311	2930 – 3692
3	3156	3344	2945 – 3742
4	3046	3392	3008 – 3776
5	3162	3407	3027 – 3788
6	3193	3401	2979 – 3823
7	3198	3408	2916 – 3901
8	2959	3387	2851 – 3922
9	3097	3352	2805 – 3898
10	3104	3315	2785 – 3845
11	3217	3253	2756 – 3751
12	3615	3174	2711 – 3637
13	4459	3104	2703 – 3505
14	5084	3024	2712 – 3337
15	4979	2957	2719 – 3195
16	4300	2915	2711 – 3120
17	3907	2869	2677 – 3060
18	3378	2841	2650 – 3032
19	2985	2821	2633 – 3009
20	2774	2794	2626 – 2962
21	2770	2770	2620 – 2920
22	2725	2753	2608 – 2898
23	2682	2735	2591 – 2880
24	2691	2737	2600 – 2875
25	2693	2725	2594 – 2855
26	2659	2717	2577 – 2857
27	2636	2723	2544 – 2902
28	2617	2719	2515 – 2923
29	2526	2720	2507 – 2934
30	2671	2707	2515 – 2900
31	2658	2687	2492 – 2882
32	2635	2682	2483 – 2881
33	3204	2669	2481 – 2857
34	2842	2663	2510 – 2815
35	2725	2667	2526 – 2807
36	2672	2676	2549 – 2804
37	2727	2698	2564 – 2832
38	2694	2729	2585 – 2873
39	2865	2752	2618 – 2886
40	2998	2786	2628 – 2943
41		2807	2655 – 2960
42		2839	2677 – 3001
43		2862	2661 – 3063
44		2889	2683 – 3095
45		2902	2692 – 3111
46		2932	2710 – 3155
47		2972	2742 – 3202
48		3012	2762 – 3263
49		3037	2742 – 3332
50		3100	2800 – 3399
51		3166	2830 – 3501
52		3222	2871 – 3573
* Provisional figures. Week 40 is an estimate.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
Week	Deaths	Estimated mortality	Estimated mortality (95%-interval)
1	3103	3277	2908 – 3645
2	3364	3311	2930 – 3692
3	3156	3344	2945 – 3742
4	3046	3392	3008 – 3776
5	3162	3407	3027 – 3788
6	3193	3401	2979 – 3823
7	3198	3408	2916 – 3901
8	2959	3387	2851 – 3922
9	3097	3352	2805 – 3898
10	3104	3315	2785 – 3845
11	3217	3253	2756 – 3751
12	3615	3174	2711 – 3637
13	4459	3104	2703 – 3505
14	5084	3024	2712 – 3337
15	4979	2957	2719 – 3195
16	4300	2915	2711 – 3120
17	3907	2869	2677 – 3060
18	3378	2841	2650 – 3032
19	2985	2821	2633 – 3009
20	2774	2794	2626 – 2962
21	2770	2770	2620 – 2920
22	2725	2753	2608 – 2898
23	2682	2735	2591 – 2880
24	2691	2737	2600 – 2875
25	2693	2725	2594 – 2855
26	2659	2717	2577 – 2857
27	2636	2723	2544 – 2902
28	2617	2719	2515 – 2923
29	2526	2720	2507 – 2934
30	2671	2707	2515 – 2900
31	2658	2687	2492 – 2882
32	2635	2682	2483 – 2881
33	3204	2669	2481 – 2857
34	2842	2663	2510 – 2815
35	2725	2667	2526 – 2807
36	2672	2676	2549 – 2804
37	2727	2698	2564 – 2832
38	2694	2729	2585 – 2873
39	2865	2752	2618 – 2886
40	2998	2786	2628 – 2943
41		2807	2655 – 2960
42		2839	2677 – 3001
43		2862	2661 – 3063
44		2889	2683 – 3095
45		2902	2692 – 3111
46		2932	2710 – 3155
47		2972	2742 – 3202
48		3012	2762 – 3263
49		3037	2742 – 3332
50		3100	2800 – 3399
51		3166	2830 – 3501
52		3222	2871 – 3573
* Provisional figures. Week 40 is an estimate.

Mainly elderly

There were mainly more deaths among people aged 80 and over. Based on the estimate, the increase seems to be slightly stronger among the rest of the population than among people receiving care under the Long-term Care Act (Wlz), such as residents of nursing homes.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
Week	Long-term care (Wlz) users, deaths	Long-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortality	Long-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortality (95%-interval)	Other population, deaths	Other population, estimated mortality	Other population, estimated mortality (95%-interval)
1	1210	1252	1052 – 1451	1893	2025	1780 – 2270
2	1265	1272	1076 – 1468	2099	2039	1793 – 2285
3	1135	1282	1086 – 1478	2021	2062	1805 – 2319
4	1125	1301	1113 – 1489	1921	2091	1842 – 2339
5	1098	1310	1118 – 1503	2064	2097	1853 – 2341
6	1142	1309	1099 – 1519	2051	2092	1826 – 2358
7	1155	1309	1069 – 1549	2043	2099	1796 – 2403
8	1129	1296	1044 – 1549	1830	2091	1762 – 2419
9	1195	1276	1005 – 1546	1902	2076	1756 – 2396
10	1164	1260	989 – 1531	1940	2056	1752 – 2359
11	1200	1229	950 – 1507	2017	2025	1741 – 2308
12	1335	1191	928 – 1454	2280	1983	1714 – 2252
13	1656	1156	912 – 1400	2803	1948	1715 – 2180
14	2212	1120	915 – 1326	2872	1904	1709 – 2100
15	2409	1091	910 – 1273	2570	1866	1709 – 2022
16	2066	1075	912 – 1238	2234	1840	1691 – 1990
17	1716	1055	898 – 1211	2191	1814	1663 – 1965
18	1429	1048	900 – 1195	1949	1793	1643 – 1944
19	1186	1038	897 – 1179	1799	1783	1631 – 1935
20	1031	1029	902 – 1155	1743	1765	1615 – 1915
21	1069	1015	892 – 1138	1701	1755	1615 – 1895
22	1004	1007	887 – 1127	1721	1746	1602 – 1890
23	909	995	886 – 1104	1773	1740	1585 – 1895
24	958	997	888 – 1106	1733	1740	1592 – 1889
25	912	989	879 – 1099	1781	1736	1585 – 1886
26	940	985	864 – 1107	1719	1732	1585 – 1879
27	931	992	850 – 1134	1705	1731	1567 – 1896
28	911	998	849 – 1147	1706	1721	1552 – 1890
29	900	1003	855 – 1152	1626	1717	1555 – 1879
30	957	1004	854 – 1154	1714	1704	1553 – 1855
31	946	997	851 – 1143	1712	1690	1540 – 1840
32	904	993	846 – 1140	1731	1690	1546 – 1834
33	1311	987	840 – 1134	1893	1682	1531 – 1832
34	1113	980	849 – 1111	1729	1683	1553 – 1813
35	994	974	860 – 1087	1731	1693	1550 – 1835
36	942	973	860 – 1087	1730	1703	1562 – 1844
37	941	977	865 – 1089	1786	1721	1579 – 1862
38	976	989	876 – 1102	1718	1740	1594 – 1886
39	1050	1001	892 – 1110	1815	1751	1606 – 1896
40	1078	1015	897 – 1133	1920	1771	1632 – 1909
41		1028	908 – 1147		1780	1638 – 1922
42		1042	910 – 1175		1797	1663 – 1930
43		1054	912 – 1195		1808	1650 – 1966
44		1068	920 – 1215		1821	1662 – 1981
45		1074	925 – 1224		1827	1664 – 1991
46		1086	936 – 1235		1846	1678 – 2014
47		1102	953 – 1252		1870	1684 – 2056
48		1121	964 – 1278		1892	1702 – 2081
49		1135	970 – 1300		1901	1683 – 2120
50		1163	996 – 1329		1937	1721 – 2153
51		1193	1019 – 1368		1972	1739 – 2205
52		1223	1035 – 1410		1999	1763 – 2236
* Provisional figures. Week 40 is an estimate.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
Week	Long-term care (Wlz) users, deaths	Long-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortality	Long-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortality (95%-interval)	Other population, deaths	Other population, estimated mortality	Other population, estimated mortality (95%-interval)
1	1210	1252	1052 – 1451	1893	2025	1780 – 2270
2	1265	1272	1076 – 1468	2099	2039	1793 – 2285
3	1135	1282	1086 – 1478	2021	2062	1805 – 2319
4	1125	1301	1113 – 1489	1921	2091	1842 – 2339
5	1098	1310	1118 – 1503	2064	2097	1853 – 2341
6	1142	1309	1099 – 1519	2051	2092	1826 – 2358
7	1155	1309	1069 – 1549	2043	2099	1796 – 2403
8	1129	1296	1044 – 1549	1830	2091	1762 – 2419
9	1195	1276	1005 – 1546	1902	2076	1756 – 2396
10	1164	1260	989 – 1531	1940	2056	1752 – 2359
11	1200	1229	950 – 1507	2017	2025	1741 – 2308
12	1335	1191	928 – 1454	2280	1983	1714 – 2252
13	1656	1156	912 – 1400	2803	1948	1715 – 2180
14	2212	1120	915 – 1326	2872	1904	1709 – 2100
15	2409	1091	910 – 1273	2570	1866	1709 – 2022
16	2066	1075	912 – 1238	2234	1840	1691 – 1990
17	1716	1055	898 – 1211	2191	1814	1663 – 1965
18	1429	1048	900 – 1195	1949	1793	1643 – 1944
19	1186	1038	897 – 1179	1799	1783	1631 – 1935
20	1031	1029	902 – 1155	1743	1765	1615 – 1915
21	1069	1015	892 – 1138	1701	1755	1615 – 1895
22	1004	1007	887 – 1127	1721	1746	1602 – 1890
23	909	995	886 – 1104	1773	1740	1585 – 1895
24	958	997	888 – 1106	1733	1740	1592 – 1889
25	912	989	879 – 1099	1781	1736	1585 – 1886
26	940	985	864 – 1107	1719	1732	1585 – 1879
27	931	992	850 – 1134	1705	1731	1567 – 1896
28	911	998	849 – 1147	1706	1721	1552 – 1890
29	900	1003	855 – 1152	1626	1717	1555 – 1879
30	957	1004	854 – 1154	1714	1704	1553 – 1855
31	946	997	851 – 1143	1712	1690	1540 – 1840
32	904	993	846 – 1140	1731	1690	1546 – 1834
33	1311	987	840 – 1134	1893	1682	1531 – 1832
34	1113	980	849 – 1111	1729	1683	1553 – 1813
35	994	974	860 – 1087	1731	1693	1550 – 1835
36	942	973	860 – 1087	1730	1703	1562 – 1844
37	941	977	865 – 1089	1786	1721	1579 – 1862
38	976	989	876 – 1102	1718	1740	1594 – 1886
39	1050	1001	892 – 1110	1815	1751	1606 – 1896
40	1078	1015	897 – 1133	1920	1771	1632 – 1909
41		1028	908 – 1147		1780	1638 – 1922
42		1042	910 – 1175		1797	1663 – 1930
43		1054	912 – 1195		1808	1650 – 1966
44		1068	920 – 1215		1821	1662 – 1981
45		1074	925 – 1224		1827	1664 – 1991
46		1086	936 – 1235		1846	1678 – 2014
47		1102	953 – 1252		1870	1684 – 2056
48		1121	964 – 1278		1892	1702 – 2081
49		1135	970 – 1300		1901	1683 – 2120
50		1163	996 – 1329		1937	1721 – 2153
51		1193	1019 – 1368		1972	1739 – 2205
52		1223	1035 – 1410		1999	1763 – 2236
* Provisional figures. Week 40 is an estimate.

Mortality higher than expected as of week 39

With the exception of elevated mortality in weeks 33 and 34 during the heat wave, the average weekly death count fell slightly below the expected levels as of week 19 had there not been a coronavirus epidemic. Prior to this, mortality was elevated for nine weeks on account of the epidemic. During the first wave of the epidemic, 10 thousand people died for whom COVID-19 was the confirmed or suspected cause of death.
For week 40, the municipal health services (GGD) reported 66 confirmed COVID-19 deaths to the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), and 76 confirmed cases for week 39 (as at 6 October). Because possibly not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested and registration sometimes takes a little longer, the actual COVID-19-related death count in the Netherlands is likely to turn out higher.

Improved estimation method for expected mortality

The estimation method for the expected mortality has been improved. Expected mortality according to the method that was used until 2 October relied heavily on the observation of mortality in week 3 up to and including 10 of 2020. This was a good method for figures on mortality during the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic, but it is not robust enough to determine excess mortality over a longer period of time. This is why, from now on, CBS is using a long-term average as the basis for expected mortality. This will includes a range indication with the margins within which weekly mortality is usually found, estimated based on the distribution in previous years.

More details next Friday

The figures over week 40 are estimates, based on the 85 percent that were received of the overall number of death records. On Friday 16 October, CBS will publish provisional figures on mortality in week 40. The figures will be more complete by then.

Sources

StatLine - Deaths registered weekly, by sex and age

Mainly elderly

Mortality higher than expected as of week 39

Improved estimation method for expected mortality

More details next Friday

Sources

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