Slightly raised mortality during hot week

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During the national heat wave in week 33 (from 10 to 16 August inclusive), there were an estimated 3,100 deaths in the Netherlands. This is over 400 more than in the previous weeks, when there was relatively low mortality. The excess deaths in week 33 are linked to the strong heat. There were relatively few confirmed COVID-19 cases. This is reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) in reply to media inquiries and based on provisional weekly mortality figures.
There was an official heat wave from 5 to 16 August inclusive, lasting a relatively long time (13 days) and including nine tropical days.

First clear increase since peak of additional deaths during pandemic

The excess mortality during the heat wave followed 13 weeks of relatively low mortality. Prior to this, mortality was elevated for nine weeks on account of the coronavirus epidemic. In weeks 11 to 19 of 2020, the estimated number of deaths in excess of the average during a similar-length period without a coronavirus pandemic stood at almost 9 thousand.
For week 33 and as at 18 August, the municipal health services (GGD) reported 15 confirmed COVID-19 deaths to the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). This means the excess mortality in week 33 is almost entirely due to the higher maximum temperatures.

More deaths as temperature rises

There were two official heat waves in 2019: from 22 through 27 July and from 23 July through 28 August. The first one was characterised by the highest maximum temperatures ever recorded in the Netherlands; almost 400 more people died than during an average summer week.
Previous research by CBS and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) showed a correlation between higher temperatures and increased death rates. In July 2006, during one of the longest and most intense heat waves in at least 100 years, there were an additional estimated one thousand deaths compared to an average month of July. Over the past few years, this correlation appears to have become less obvious. The heat waves in 2018 barely caused any excess mortality. This may be related to the elevated mortality earlier in the year, which was linked to the particularly severe winter with flu epidemic.

Additional deaths mainly among people over 80

Excess deaths due to heat waves occur mainly among the population aged 80 years and over. This is also evident from the most recent heat wave. The estimated number of excess deaths in this age group was 300, similar to the heat wave last year.

More details next Friday

The mortality figures on week 33 presented here are estimates based on 85 percent of the death certificates as received by CBS. CBS will publish more detailed data on week 33 mortality on Friday 28 August. The data will be more complete by then and CBS will be able to provide a more accurate picture of mortality, also among long-term care users, by age group and by region.

Sources

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