Population forecast, Caribbean Netherlands 2024-2050

Assumptions on migration

Immigration into the Caribbean Netherlands in 2023 was higher than the previous forecast by more than two hundred persons. This resulted in a higher projected number of immigrants for next year and a slightly higher number in the longer term. However, there are significant differences between islands and by country of birth. The increase in the number of immigrants affects Bonaire in particular, and mainly concerns persons born outside the Kingdom of the Netherlands. On Saba and St Eustatius, the number of immigrants was slightly lower than expected.

Emigration from the Caribbean Netherlands in 2023 was higher than the previous forecast by more than two hundred persons. The difference was the largest in the case of St Eustatius, which saw double the expected number of persons emigrating in 2023. As a result, emigration from St Eustatius has been adjusted upwards in the new forecast for 2035. The number of people emigrating from Saba was actually slightly lower than expected in 2023. There was more emigration from Bonaire in 2023 than expected in the previous forecast. Nevertheless, the projected number of people emigrating from Bonaire between now and 2035 has been revised downwards: this is due to adjustments in the probability of immigrants leaving the island again.

The probability of the departure of immigrants according to length of stay has been adjusted, using the latest data. This time, data from older immigration cohorts (before 2011) were also included when estimating the probability of departure after a longer period. According to these new estimates, 89 percent (rather than 91 percent) of immigrants born in the European Netherlands, 70 percent (rather than 66 percent) of those born in Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten and 75 percent (rather than 76 percent) of those from other countries will ultimately leave again. Also, 57 percent of those born in the Caribbean Netherlands who emigrate are also ultimately expected to return (rather than 54 percent). The model allows for immigrants leaving up to 30 years after settling on one of the islands. This means that emigration is more stable. Compared to the previous forecast, the emigration numbers are slightly lower until 2035, and slightly higher thereafter.

Assumptions on mortality

In 2023, the total number of deaths in the Caribbean Netherlands was twelve lower than expected in the previous forecast. The number of deaths in the years to come in the current forecast is higher than in the previous forecast; this is because there will be more inhabitants under the current forecast. As in previous forecasts, it is assumed that mortality rates for residents of the Caribbean Netherlands will decrease at the same rate as for residents of the European Netherlands.

Assumptions on births

The number of births on Bonaire in 2023 was five lower than expected. In the current forecast, the expected number has been revised upwards compared to the previous forecast. This is because Bonaire is projected to have a larger number of inhabitants aged around thirty over the longer term due to higher immigration, leading to a higher birth rate. On Saba, the number of births in 2023 was one higher than in last year's forecast. The projection for future births has remained much the same. On St Eustatius, there were five fewer births than projected in 2023. Due to the high level of emigration, fewer births are expected on St Eustatius under the new forecast than in the previous forecast.

Population forecast

Between 1 January 2011 and 1 January 2024, the population of the Caribbean Netherlands rose from 21.1 thousand to 30.4 thousand. This represents an annual average population growth of 3.4 percent. The forecast projects a population of 36.1 thousand in 2035, and annual population growth of 1.7 percent. According to the forecast, population growth will end in around 2050. By that time, the Caribbean Netherlands is expected to have more than 38.7 thousand inhabitants.

Since 2011, Bonaire has seen the strongest population growth of the three islands. The new forecast also projects the strongest growth for Bonaire between now and 2035, at 21 percent. For Saba, this is 10 percent; and for St Eustatius 5 percent.